so if you're heading that way (including me!) please consider the implications as us poor British folk just aren't used to this sort of heat. I will update the forecast on this thread later in the week.
I am an amateur meteorologist and am becoming concerned about the possibility of extreme heat developing across the eastern Med and the Balkans from next weekend. Current model output suggests temperatures could get into the low 40s celsius (high 100s F) during the early part of the following week so if you're heading that way (including me!) please consider the implications as us poor British folk just aren't used to this sort of heat.
I will update the forecast on this thread later in the week.
so if you're heading that way (including me!) please consider the implications as us poor British folk just aren't used to this sort of heat. I will update the forecast on this thread later in the week.
Hi, that's intresting and maybe you can answer my weather related questions? We are going to sunny beach on 27th so do you think the heat wave will continue into that week or will it be thunder and rain? Also how far in advance can weather be forecasted and by what factor does the reliabilty decrease depending on how far ahead you forecast ? In other words how soon will i be able to find a accurate forecast for my week in the sun? 
many thanks, Tunise
many thanks, Tunise
Hi Tunise,
Weather forecasts for Varna over the next 10 - 15 days are HERE and HERE. Sunny Beach will be much the same.
September can be a bit pot luck like most temperate climates. It can be very warm/even hot, and dry - the Bulgarians call it a gypsy Summer, but you can get some rain and wind. If you are lucky you might see a couple of quite spectacular thunderstorms over the Black Sea.
We have a thread on weather HERE
Peter
Weather forecasts for Varna over the next 10 - 15 days are HERE and HERE. Sunny Beach will be much the same.
September can be a bit pot luck like most temperate climates. It can be very warm/even hot, and dry - the Bulgarians call it a gypsy Summer, but you can get some rain and wind. If you are lucky you might see a couple of quite spectacular thunderstorms over the Black Sea.
We have a thread on weather HERE
Peter
Hello Peter
Thanjs for the links there. They are computer generated forecasts based on the GFS extended model output. They are fairly useful as a rough guide but their accuracy beyond 5 days is questionable. Having said that, in regions such as the Med (at this time of year) patterns are generally quite static and longer-term outlooks are slightly easier to predict. The data I have used in my prediction of extreme heat is somewhat more extensive and I suggest that the Accuweather forecast of around +28 to +31 next week is very conservative. I hope I'm wrong as I hate the very hot stuff.
Tunise
It is beyond anyone's range to go further than 10 days and any forecast you see is pure guesswork. However, going by historical means it would be reasonable to suggest any very hot weather will be temporary and it should return to the high 20s before long. As for storms - well, I hope we get one or two as I love a good thunderstorm (at night that is!)
Thanjs for the links there. They are computer generated forecasts based on the GFS extended model output. They are fairly useful as a rough guide but their accuracy beyond 5 days is questionable. Having said that, in regions such as the Med (at this time of year) patterns are generally quite static and longer-term outlooks are slightly easier to predict. The data I have used in my prediction of extreme heat is somewhat more extensive and I suggest that the Accuweather forecast of around +28 to +31 next week is very conservative. I hope I'm wrong as I hate the very hot stuff.
Tunise
It is beyond anyone's range to go further than 10 days and any forecast you see is pure guesswork. However, going by historical means it would be reasonable to suggest any very hot weather will be temporary and it should return to the high 20s before long. As for storms - well, I hope we get one or two as I love a good thunderstorm (at night that is!)
yee ha... bring it on 
Tina
Tina
Thanks for the links, i can see me clicking on them everyday to try and get a bigger picture of what might happen. I also love a really good thunderstorm but only in the evening while sitting on the balcony with a drink!
hi tunise, add them to your favourites... Tina
Tina
I see no reason to change my forecast for Sun through Weds next week for the Black Sea Coast. I see the auto-generated forecasts have now upped the maxima to +35 or so on Sunday and Monday but I still think this is conservative and +40 is very likely IMO. Phew, what a scorcher!
This is interesting re the weather - STANDART NEWS
This morning I received an email from Varna reporting that it was most uncomfortably hot.
Peter
This morning I received an email from Varna reporting that it was most uncomfortably hot.
Peter
Just spoken to my parents who are over in Sunny Beach at the moment and they said it's 34degrees today and has been baking hot since they got there Monday!
Hope it keep it up for when we're there in 2 weeks time
Hope it keep it up for when we're there in 2 weeks time
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