If you're not fussy about where you go Les - then you can risk holding off. We wanted a specific hotel for next August and were very surprised that most of the rooms had already gone, at the beginning of this August. I know many of my friends who have been put off by the Euro rate this year had already booked AI for next year, before this Credit Crunch arrived.

Don't think they will drop their prices - now the 4 companies~(Airtours,Tho Cook,Thomson,First Choice) have become 2 the tendency is(will be) to reduce choice and consolidate so that some hotels will vanish from UK availability on packages. Looking at holidays in the Caribbean for next Spring I've been startled by the big increases in most places.

now the 4 companies~(Airtours,Tho Cook,Thomson,First Choice) have become 2 the tendency is(will be) to reduce choice and consolidate so that some hotels will vanish from UK availability on packages.

I agree, this has already happened with First Choice/Tui for next year. Apartments we've been booking in Greece for a few years with First Choice are no longer available.

Sarah

I'm not sure they will drop their prices either. I think the only way you may get a bargain is if you are very flexible on where you will go and have some flexibility on dates, also on accommodation type i.e. SC, HB, AI

I think we have seen the results of companys trying to cut costs to the bone with the likes of XL etc going under and I dont think the big companies will be prepared to let that happen, I think they would rather sell slightly less holidays but charge more for them per unit. This is turn also makes it less likely to get a bargain as they then contract less hotel rooms for the season as well.

I think we have seen the results of companys trying to cut costs to the bone with the likes of XL etc going under and I dont think the big companies will be prepared to let that happen, I think they would rather sell slightly less holidays but charge more for them per unit. This is turn also makes it less likely to get a bargain as they then contract less hotel rooms for the season as well.

Absolutely bang on correct. The trend in holiday prices is steadily upwards, encouarging families to book early, so by the time the lates market arrves there will be very little left available plus the tour ops will have made a nice profit, they wont care if they dont sell those last few seats. More and more people are booking cruise and AI to get the best value for money out of their holiday so expect the best of both of these to be snapped up PDQ.

After 15 years of cheap packages I feel we are heading back to holidays being a luxury for normal middle income families, meaning they will book earlier to budget for them. Without stirring up a hornets nest I realised when a family came into the shop I worked in a few years ago asking me to give them a discount on an already cheap package because they didnt have any income other than their benefits that the culture of discounting and late deals had gone too far.

So, in summary: If you see something you like and want and think is reasonable now GET IT BOOKED!

It's nice to get a rubber stamp of approval on my post from someone in the Industry.

Always fancied working in travel, but I guess like most jobs I'm sure it's a lot of hard work dealing with people who are often unreasonable and as you mention expecting five stars on benefits money. Funny world we live in now though as I always thought benefits were to put a roof over your head and food in your mouth, just the basics and not two weeks in the sun which I naively though you earnt by working forn the other 50 weeks a year. But no doubt the bleeding hearts will all say 'but claimants are people too...... and need their holidays as it's so depressing for them blah, blah.........

Totally agree with the age of super cheap hols is going if not gone. Even DIYers maybe be more cautious after the dramas with Futura, XL et al. The TOs will be selling for what they think is a good price and it will be up to the consumer to find a price they think is fair for what they are getting. This year TOs reduced their capacities and more of the same to follow in 09. So id say if you find a decent price get on it and if someone else gets it later for less, fair play to them for gambling.

Take a chance and wait the worst of the credit crunch has not come yet there could be plenty of cancellations in 09.And the tour ops will want bums on seats.

I dont agree. I think we will find families having just one holiday and ploughing all into that, instead of three or even four breaks a year (I've only had two this year and I work in travel!) I know how important that fortnight a year is to people and I know through research that has been done that people will rather have a holiday than replace a car/get an extension on their house. This is where the value for money comes in. AIs give the best value, travellers dont have to worry too much about spends. I am finding families booking far, far in advance and even booking longhaul as 2 weeks AI in Cyprus is not any different to the Dom Rep or Cuba.

Of course, I could be wrong and by next Summer I could be out of retail and into training (hopefully) until this blip (and I think it is a blip) has settled.

So, yeah, in my professional opinion, if you find it and it looks good, shop around, give your local independent agent a chance and get it booked. They days of a week in Aug AI for £300 are gone... for now.

Agree with agentQ, its all about knowing what you want and how much it should cost . Three weeks ago I booked a week for £387 knowing that the same holiday was normally over £500 it seems I made the right choice as it is now back up to £550.
So check the prices onthe net as often as you can and if you see a bargain grab it.

I cannot see them cutting holiday prices as all they will do is fit their supply to the demand.

From what I gather the CC is much worse then most people are aware, wait untill the end of Jan/Feb for the GDP figures after all the extended manufacturing closures over Xmas, and more finacial scams to be exposed etc. (A great apparently financial saying I came across the other day was .."It's only when the tide is fully out that you find out whose been wearing the trunks")

Wouldn't most tour operators have made there room agreements far in advance of the pending crash/crunch and therefore be based on last years figures?? If so they will have plenty to shift later! And of course there are then the cancellations as qatarman quite rightly says. I bet this figure will be an industry high this time round. Now if you offer them at a reduced price as they will guess what happens?

Also I checked some flights and at the moment they are dearer for next Augiust than last why? Oil is now less than $40 a barrel compared with over $140 before August 2008! So there is room for manovore there soon.

To me I see the same old industry signs as I do every year, ie trying to talk up the market and get the max they can out of people early on as any good business should do, only this time unfortunately they will be talkiing to a lot fewer people that can! There's no way they will get dearer at least not for next year however 2010 could be arkward. So I'm looking to book 2010 very very early!! (this is hard for me lol) But i'm more than happy with my educated guess for 2009 so as usual I'll let the early birds rush in and subsidise my later booking (Thanks) But this time I'm expecting a seriously good bargain in a buyers market say from March or later on.

My wisdom+logic+research+expericences= well, just my opinion

Don't tour operators have to pay in euro's to european countries?.
August 2008, a Hotel that say for instance that a tour operator had to pay for, cost them 25 euros a night (25 euros at that time was around £18).
Now that the euro is nearly equal to the pound,( same room costing to the operators 25euros =£25) surely when they have to pay for the Hotels they (the tour operators) are losing mega bucks.
We surelly will somewhere will have to carry that cost, (another hidden charge)?.

Quite possibly true, but if they can't sell them......Wow they really are in a very week position are'nt they!
Check there share prices if there listed

Tahts interesting, i was wondering if prices will collectively go up or down to crunch. Whats everyones experience so far?

Well, the big boys are now starting to discount I think £300 off Greece with Thomson or Thomas cook. But for me being a DIYer they are already too expensive lol. Both of there CEO's have stated that they are well down on bookings for the same period of last year.

So slower to start than I thought but it is starting (as usual) I'm sure there will be some real good last minute deals in August but I prefer to book sooner.

My gripe though is that flight prices seem to be the same if not higher than last year, yet the fuel is way cheaper so I haven't booked mine yet, I'll wait for the reverse fuel surcharge lol or I just won't book. I will not pay a penny more than last year like for like in a buyers market.

Of course the downside is there is less competition now and I guess even less in the near future and there will be quite a few independent agents on the edge right now...but the banks will be nice to them now we own them........and pigs will fly!

First Choice holiday village 4*A/I 4 share, upgrade to jacuzzi suit £165 PP 7nts. Thats a bargain, this time last year thomson had hardly any late bargains but this year they have loads, have wait and see what they will have in June but by the time July hits and school hols there won't be much around.

I booked my holiday for this august last may and the hotel is sold out with every tour op and that was before xmas, they are charging what I paid at the beginning of august for october which means my holiday would cost £3K to £4K more than the £4K I have paid for 4 adults. Anybody booking a good A/I now for the school hols will be in for a shock.

I am hoping to go back to Austria in July and have noticed the prices have started to come down for May and June on Teletext.
They should be displaying the early July prices when I get back from Turkey at the end of May.
I always find a good deal but I am flexible on dates and can go from almost any airport.