An interesting article. However in many cases it is not easy to predict which airlines are at risk. Also a lot of the general public will not know how these airlines are funded and the support they have.

Thomson Airways (14/1) are part of the large TUI group and I would have thought that this is a section of the company that they support well.
There is nothing to suggest that they are any worse off than Thomas Cook (40/1)

Gower

A little knowledge is a dangerous thing - a journalist with a little knowledge is catastrophic!

To put things in perspective, they are actually prepared to take bets on Monarch unlike Alitalia and Olympic - where you need to bet on it to cover your ticket price! They have a definition of what they are betting against "Does not include service/flights being 'phased out' before merging with another airline". So UK Thomson merge with German TUIFly (more likely) or BMIBaby absorbed into Lufthansa and you lose.

They've also got two other books open - how long can Willie Walsh survive at BA and who will be the next CEO of easyjet. What odds would they offer on guessing the date that Willie moves to EZY?

Just been reading this article in Times Online.

Can I ask everyone reads this article with a bucket full of salt. It's just journalistic interpretation of things, ie sensationalist and a bookmaker trying to earn a living. Monarch are not in any trouble so the cutting of odds is nonesense. Tui are the largest travel company in the world and the UK is their second largest market. To suggest they are 11/1 to go under is like saying Chelsea are 11/1 to get relegated from the Premier League this season!

Darren

Chelsea are 11/1 to get relegated from the Premier League this season!

now that would be worth seeing....

Just been reading this article in Times Online.

this would be a big shock to me monarch are one of the oldest British charter companies and i believe still majority owned by one family you have more chance of seeing one of the national carriers go under

Wizard HT Mod wrote:

monarch are one of the oldest British charter companies and i believe still majority owned by one family you have more chance of seeing one of the national carriers go under

It's a little more complicated than that but the majority shareholding company in Monarch Airlines (88% I believe) is spearheaded by Sergio Mantegazza who's personal fortune is around the $2.4 billion mark making him the 317th richest person in the world at the moment. His group founded the airlne and Cosmos as well as others in the travel sector. His son now runs Monarch and isn't going to let things go down the pan making the odds quoted and article pointless. As I mentioned, the article is just rediculous and is just a way for the bookmaker to make some money (nothing wrong in that, it's what they're there for). Because of what happened to Flyglobespan recently, The Times have jumped on the band wagon and come up with the article. It's started all sorts of rumours that are totally unfounded. They only harm the travel industry and airlines inparticular, and cause panic amungst those who've booked with those named and make people think twice about booking when there's no need to worry. They should do what journalists are paid to do before printing such things, and do some research.

Darren

I posted the link simply as a matter of interest.
Of more concern should be the fact that they are actually running a book. The stock market is a strange world. People do not simply buy stocks and shares but actively work at manipulating companies to their advantage. I have no doubt the aim is to influence affairs for financial advantage for a select few. As an example you could consider a recent report that oil tankers were going round in circles on the basis of restrict supplies and therefore drive up the price. In this case it is probably aimed at influencing the share prices..

fwh

Now here's a pure hypothetical idea.

1. you are running a rival airline that has a long track record for distastful and sensational advertising.
2. you are planning to launch flights on the same routes in direct competition to your rivals.
3. you devise a plan to destabilise your rivals reputation and frighten potential travellers from commiting their bookings to the rival airline
4. arrange for 100 of your most trusted employees/lackies to open a betting account and pop a few quid on your chosen victim.
5. wait for the odds to shorten
6. leak the sensational news to the hungriest gutter journo you can find.

Hey presto.

You're a cynic.

Just like me!!!!

We could start a book on who would do a thing like that. The trouble is I don't think we'd get odds on my candidate, especially from an Irish bookie.

Well can't you include wishful thinking for that particular airline?!

Well I was thinking of starting a book on which airlines safety equipment is least likely to work when you need it but following a Channel 4 documentary a couple of years ago I don't think I'd get odds on that either!

I see Garuda is starting to fly to Europe again this year. Hope they have updated their planes/safety procedures etc. I wouldn't fancy flying with them.

Garuda will be flying Jakarta to Amsterdam via Dubai using Airbus A332 which they bought new in 2009 i believe.

something to ponder on.....it was rumours that did big damage to some banks and brought some to their knees.....worried people began to take out their cash....which strenthened the rumours....then there was queus of very worried people out of the door and down the road afraid the bank would run out of money before they'd managed to get their money out....as not all the funds were in hard cash but assets that needed converting ....long term investments ect .....the reality was if every one insisted on their cash not everyone could be paid.....so they had to shut the doors ...and then had to be rescued by the goverment..

Rewind ....the reality was £35,000 of everyones cash was guaranteed bt the coverment in the event of a bank going bust.....very few of those panicking and queing had any where near that amount....and the people panicking and drawing out their cash despite reasurances by the bank and goverment were causing the problem that they were so afraid of..

People very often act because of a rumour....and can cause the rumour to come true

Very true and that seems to be what someone is trying to do to Monarch.

So would now be a good time to mention the goings on at Liverpool Airport today? Ryanair plane, emergency fire evacuation, faulty equipment (according to Ryanair themselves). All it takes is one sloppy (or bent) journalist and it could do a lot of damage to the company........

steve8482 wrote:

Ryanair plane, emergency fire evacuation, faulty equipment (according to Ryanair themselves)

That could have happened to any aircraft on any day. Because it's Ryanair, the media like to focus on them because of a couple of recent incidents and their CEO, none of which where their fault. The situation was handled text book and those involved should be praised. A fire warning indicator isn't to be taken lightly, false alarm or not.

I think a lot is being read in to all this. There may or may not be underlying issues, but I still stand by the article being just journalistic interpretation to fill a page with little to no research and a bookie trying to make a few £££ based on recent events, ie Flyglobespan, XL etc.

Darren

Despite seeing the odds on Monarch, i booked a flight out with them for september, i honestly believe they are ok, they are a company who's been in business a long time and built up steadily so probably very little debt on their balance sheet.
I used XL and they were good and cheap but the reason they probably went under was because they had borrowed too much to expand too quickly, i don't think monarch are in the same situation.
in respect to the odds, i'm sure man.u were about 4-1 to win the fa cup , that ain't gonna happen either

Darren

My point about the Liverpool incident is that it would only take the basic facts to be rearranged in one badly written article in a high volume newspaper to start a run on Ryanair. This thread was started following a badly written article about other airlines.